The global race for rare earths and other critical minerals is intensifying, and financial advisory giant deVere Group predicts it will become one of the defining investment themes of 2026 as the United States and China escalate their competition for control over the materials that power the modern economy.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, says: “Rare earths have moved from the edge of the commodities market to the center of global strategy. The contest to secure them will shape trade, technology, and investment decisions for years to come.”
These minerals—vital for electric vehicles, smartphones, and advanced weapons systems—have long been dominated by China, which currently controls about 70% of global mining and nearly 90% of processing capacity. This dominance leaves manufacturers worldwide exposed to Chinese policy shifts.
That grip is now facing resistance. The U.S. administration has elevated rare earths to a national priority, channeling funds into domestic and allied production. It has taken stakes in North American miners, proposed a government-backed price floor to stabilize supply, and advanced plans for a strategic mineral reserve. Permitting is being accelerated, and environmental restrictions eased under the so-called “mine, baby, mine” policy.
“Washington’s intervention marks the start of a new industrial cycle,” says Green. “The U.S. aims to reclaim control of its supply chains and reduce its dependency on Beijing. This is not mere political theatre—it’s the largest coordinated push for resource security in a generation.”
Meanwhile, China has tightened its own controls. Beijing has introduced new export rules requiring approval for shipments of magnets containing even trace amounts of Chinese-sourced rare earths. It has also added five elements—holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium—to its restricted list.
“China is demonstrating that control of supply equals control of markets,” says Green. “The U.S. and its allies are being forced to construct alternative supply chains, triggering a surge of investment across Australia, North America, and parts of Africa. Financial markets are following the geopolitics.”
He adds: “The investment implications are profound. This is a multi-year transformation, not a short-term trend. Building infrastructure and refining capacity takes time. Investors who position early will benefit from sustained capital flows into strategic resources.”
deVere analysts expect continued volatility as government policies increasingly shape the sector.
“These markets will not move on earnings alone—they’ll move on policy,” Green notes. “Every export restriction, government stake, or strategic alliance will ripple through valuations. This volatility can create opportunities for disciplined investors.”
He continues: “Diversification across the supply chain—from mining and refining to recycling technologies—will be crucial. This is about securing the systems that keep economies functioning. Investors who understand that will be the long-term winners.”
Green concludes: “Rare earths now sit at the intersection of industrial policy, clean energy, and national security. The race to control them will define 2026. The scale of investment already underway shows how fast the world is recalibrating to a new economic reality. It’s a once-in-a-generation shift in where value is being created.”
