By Erik Olsson,
Head of Machinery Sales and Strategic Projects, Midsummer
The war in Iran has created a wave of uncertainty that is affecting the world's energy markets, with sharply increased oil and gasoline prices as the most obvious consequence. But the conflict can also act as a catalyst for Europe's and the world’s green transition.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine four years ago was followed by a rush for solar panels. Solar energy became a safeguard against sharply rising prices for oil and natural gas that were pushing up European electricity prices. It was a driving force motivated not only by the price of electricity, but also by national security and the desire to avoid dependence on energy from unsafe or unwanted suppliers.
Now that concerns about energy prices have returned because of developments in the Middle East, this should also lead to further increased consumer interest in becoming self-sufficient. The conflict can thus act as a catalyst for Europe's green transition.
Radical new EU requirements
In 2026, the EU's new requirements for solar panels on new buildings, EPBD, will begin to be phased in. According to the directive, which will be implemented gradually over the coming years, solar roofs must be installed on new and certain existing buildings where it is technically appropriate, economically feasible, and functionally viable.
There are many buildings covered by the directive where developers must take reasonable account of solar power when planning construction. This means that buildings must avoid unjustified obstacles to the future installation of solar power in their design. The requirement is expected to come into force as early as 2026, but proposed transitional provisions mean that implementation will accelerate in 2027, followed by gradual expansion through 2030.
My assessment is that many developers and property owners are not at all prepared for this radical change in building requirements. Solar roofs will soon become as standard in a building as toilets and electrical outlets. Perhaps increasing consumer demand for solar energy will make the transition easier.
Price increases on Chinese panels
In parallel with growing interest in renewable energy, China has begun a process to eliminate export subsidies for silicon panels. The removal of these subsidies means that Chinese manufacturers' costs will increase, which will ultimately be felt by end customers. Increased energy and raw material prices, as well as higher transport and logistics costs for goods shipped from Asia, will also put pressure on prices for Asian solar panels.
In the project sector, price increases of up to 20 percent are now expected for Chinese panels, while module prices at distributors and in online stores have in some cases, already risen by as much as 30 percent during the first months of this year in Europe.
Solar energy the cheapest way to produce electricity
Solar energy is the cheapest way to produce electricity in almost all parts of the world. Nearly 75 percent of all newly installed power generation globally in 2025 came from solar energy, while the remainder was distributed among all other technologies such as wind power, coal power, gas, and nuclear power.
Solar energy is expected to remain the cheapest way to produce electricity and therefore the dominant source of power in the coming decades.
Hopefully, Europe can seize this opportunity not only to increase the share of solar energy in the electricity mix, but also to establish local players in the production of solar panels for this type of power.
For this to happen, politicians in Europe must wake up and make some obvious decisions:
• Import duties on input materials for European solar cell manufacturers must be scrapped. Currently, imported finished solar panels from countries outside the EU are duty-free, while domestic manufacturers are subject to duties on raw materials used in manufacturing. This is illogical and downright counterproductive if the goal is to build a domestic renewable energy industry.
• Introduce incentives for solar panels made in the EU, or ban solar cells and panels linked to forced labor, similar to laws in the United States. We need to ensure that customers are offered solar panels produced under European labor conditions and environmental standards.
• Support Ukraine with solar panels made in Europe. Ukraine needs solar panels and the major advantages of decentralized energy systems to maintain critical electricity supplies during Russia's war against the country. However, so far, funds from the EU or its member states earmarked for solar energy have not been used to promote and support European manufacturers, but have instead benefited Chinese producers.
• Establish uniform investment support across the EU. State investment support is currently handled differently by each country, even though all member states are theoretically subject to the same state aid rules. Today, the differences between countries within the Union are significant, creating inequality. (Midsummer was granted state aid for the construction of a solar cell factory in Italy, but not in Sweden.)
