By George Prior, the deVere Group's spokesperson
Edited by Korea IT Times
The US-led “Project Freedom” initiative to guide stranded vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz may ease immediate pressure on energy markets, but it is unlikely to remove the broader disruption facing global trade.
Oil prices moved lower in volatile trading after the announcement, with Brent crude and US benchmark prices retreating on expectations that vessels could begin moving again through one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Around 1,000 commercial ships and tens of thousands of seafarers have reportedly been caught in the disruption, which has slowed flows through a waterway that has historically carried roughly a fifth of global energy supply.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, said markets may be underestimating the time needed for the system to recover. “Markets are reacting to the idea that ships will start moving again, but the system doesn’t reset instantly. There’s a real latency shock to consider.”
Even if escorted shipping corridors reduce congestion, they also add operational complexity. Convoys must be coordinated, vessels may face longer inspections, routes are being adjusted, and clearance procedures are likely to take more time.
For shipping firms, this means tighter schedules, higher security requirements, longer turnaround times and rising insurance costs. For manufacturers, retailers and energy buyers, the impact may appear less in headline oil prices and more in delayed inputs, longer delivery windows and less reliable supply planning.
Green said the wider issue is not only the oil market but the slowdown in the movement of goods. “Every additional hour at sea or waiting clearance feeds into cost structures across industries.”
The backlog is expected to take time to clear, even with coordinated military and diplomatic support. Supply chains designed around speed, low inventories and predictable delivery schedules are now facing a more uncertain operating environment.
Companies may have to hold more inventory, diversify sourcing and absorb higher logistics costs. Those costs could eventually feed into consumer prices and reinforce inflationary pressure.
Financial markets have so far responded mainly to the prospect of renewed shipping flows and lower energy prices. But the longer-term risk is that delays become embedded in global trade routes, raising the cost of moving goods even after the immediate blockage is resolved.
“The focus on headline oil prices risks missing the broader story,” Green said. “The cost of moving goods is rising because the system itself has slowed down.”
The release of stranded vessels would mark an important step toward restoring activity in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the disruption has exposed the vulnerability of global supply chains to delays in key maritime chokepoints. The economic impact may continue to unfold well after ships begin moving again.
